The imminent crisis
According to a study published January 3 by the Alzheimer Society of Canada, Canada is facing an epidemic of dementia that will completely overwhelm our healthcare system and devastate our economy within one generation unless significant policy changes are made.
The report, entitled Rising Tide: The Impact of Dementia on Canadian Society, outlines the imminent crisis and calls for the institution of a coherent national plan to mitigate the damage.
Dementia encompasses a range of disorders distinguished by an acquired progressive decline in cognitive function. As age is a primary factor in its development, the prevalence of dementia among our population is expected increase exponentially when Canada’s baby-boomers begin to enter their senior years in 2011.
The Alzheimer Society report predicts that the number of Canadians suffering from dementia will more than double between now and 2038, from 480 618 to 1 125 184, representing an increase in the relative percentage of the national population from 1.5% to 2.8%.
* This means that in less than 30 years over 1.1 million Canadians will be affect by some form of dementia..
Over those 30 years, the model predicts that dementia will cost the Canadian economy over $872 billion dollars (see Fig. 1), encompassing a yearly cost increase from $15 billion per year to $135 billion per year.
* Direct health costs for individual dementia sufferers are predicted to more than double every 10 years for the next 30 years across all care types.
The report explains that the typical long-term care associated with dementia will not only push existing facilities to the breaking point, but place an added burden on informal caregivers—family and loved ones—as the demand for the construction of new long-term care beds will greatly outpace supply.
The Alzheimer Society predicts a shortfall of 157 000 beds by 2038—dwarfing the significant 15 400 bed shortfall of today. An increasing number of Canadians suffering from severe dementia will be forced to live at home, including many who are unable to live without constant assistance. This dependence on home care will increase the burden on informal caregivers, worsening the total economic impact of dementia through further lost wages and other opportunity costs.
The promise of lifestyle and community-care interventions
Recognizing the inevitability of a long-term care bed shortfall, the Alzheimer Society examines the potential effects on their predictive model of initiatives focused on keeping future elderly Canadians out of long-term care facilities.
These hypothetical, evidence-based programs would attempt to delay the onset of dementia or prevent it altogether through encouraging positive lifestyle changes and improve training for informal caregivers.
Suggestions include:
- Programs to increase Canadian seniors’ exercise levels by 50%
- Programs to promote healthy diet and lifestyle choices
- Providing training to improve the efficiency of informal caregivers
- Assigning a “system navigator,” or case manager, to each newly diagnosed person with dementia in order to improve their access to community support systems.
After applying the studied effects of such programs to the model, the report found that all four programs would significantly lessen the total cost burden on the Canadian health care system by 2038.
By far the most effective was the plan to promote healthy diet and lifestyle choices.
Studies show such a program could contribute to prevention, and at least delay the onset of Alzheimer’s dementia in Canadians for up to 2 years.
Modeled over the 30 year period, this particular intervention reduced the predicted number of Canadians with dementia by more than 409 640—36.4% of the predicted total—and subsequently kept over 153 870 dementia-sufferers out of long-term care. This would reduce the predicted cumulative total economic burden by more than $218.6 billion, or 25.1% (see Fig. 2).
The state of current policy
In terms of a cohesive national policy to attack this crisis, the Alzheimer Society has found that Canada lags sorely behind her peers.
Australia, France, The Netherlands, Norway, Scotland, and the United Kingdom have all made the fight against dementia a national priority by launching national initiatives significantly investing in research, and improving clinical care and training for both medical professionals and informal caregivers.
Just like the hypothetical interventions considered in the Alzheimer Society’s model, these policies are primarily concerned with keeping patients out of long-term care facilities, either through attempting to delay the onset of the disease or improving home care.
While Canada does not have any similar cohesive national plan to combat dementia, positive policies in research and home care do exist.
Over the past decade, the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR) has increased annual funding for dementia research from $4.5 million to $20 million, and the federal government does provide some financial support to home caregivers of elderly patients.
The report presents the Veterans Independence Program of Veterans Affairs Canada as a successful domestic program aimed at keeping Canadians out of long-term care facilities: it provides home care and support to 102 154 of Canada’s war service veterans while occupying only 4190 beds. The Alzheimer Society infers that a similar national policy aimed specifically at dementia could have an enormous impact.
One barrier to a cohesive national policy is the complex nature of dementia care and research.
Just as the treatment of geriatric dementia patients, often characterized by various comorbidities, may require the input of numerous specialists working in concert, the report observes that influence over dementia-related policy can be equally claimed by government departments for seniors’ issues, for chronic diseases, and for mental health.
This has been addressed on a provincial level, however, as many provincial governments have launched interdepartmental pilot initiatives to improve service delivery and research in dementia. So far, policy recommendations have yielded only one concrete collaborative provincial plan that includes a significant financial investment, Ontario’s $68.4 million Strategy on Alzheimer’s Disease and Related Dementias (ADRD).
Subsequently, many Canadian provinces have launched interdepartmental initiatives to improve service delivery and research in dementia. So far policy recommendations have only yielded one concrete provincial plan that has a significant financial investment: Ontario’s $68.4 million Strategy on Alzheimer’s disease and related dementias (ADRD).
Systematic change: an integrated model of care
As a system for overarching change, the Alzheimer Society’s suggests the national institution of an integrated model of care employing a Chronic Care Model.
An integrated model would better manage the aforementioned complexity of care required of the comorbidities commonly suffered by geriatric dementia patients. The report envisions a system that would focus on coordination and collaboration between specialist providers through shared digital information systems and standardized procedures, promoting collective accountability through all levels of treatment.
Recognizing our current medical system’s poor capacity to manage long-term illnesses like dementia, the recommended system would be purposefully structured to deal with chronic disease, providing financial incentives to promote prevention and rehabilitation. Additional costs could be minimized through the redistribution of resources in long-term treatment cases to the most appropriate and cost-effective providers of specialized services (eg. Nutritionists, physical therapists, etc.), while continuing to encourage collaboration and collective ownership.
The report explains that successful examples of integrated systems already exist in Canada, citing Montreal’s Integrated System of Care for Older Persons (SIPA). This program has been found to improve patients’ accessibility to appropriate services, increase reported caregiver satisfaction, and significantly reduce alternate-level-of-care beds—the unnecessary occupation of long-term beds after sufficient recovery—all without increasing the systems’ total costs.
A comprehensive national response
In its final section, the Rising Tide report offers specific suggestions that the Alzheimer Society feels should be incorporated into a national dementia policy.
Taking into account the results of their own modeled interventions as well as the policies of peer nations, the Alzheimer Society calls for:
- An increased financial investment into biomedical and clinical dementia research by the federal government, as well as further research into the provision of complex health services and the translation of research findings
- Further financial support and training for informal and community caregivers in order to lessen their burden, effectively delaying patients’ moves to long-term care facilities
- Emphasis on prevention and early intervention through public health programs
- The institution of an integrated, standardized system structured for chronic care, coordinating medical professional and community providers; and finally
- A greater government investment in strengthening and supplementing all levels of the dementia workforce, including supporting the development of specialist physicians and nurses, community and informal caregivers, and volunteers.
In the face of this impending crisis, the Canadian government must develop a cohesive and functional national policy.
The Alzheimer Society asks all Canadians to petition their provincial and federals governments to address the epidemic ahead and mitigate the effect on our economy and our healthcare system.
As the report concludes, “the time to act is now.”
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